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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The New Zealand Fed cut interest rates as scheduled but released a dovish signal that exceeded expectations, and the future interest rate cut cycle has already begun." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The New Zealand Federal Reserve (RBNZ) announced on Wednesday (August 20) that it would lower the official cash rate (OCR) from 3.25% to 3.00% after the August policy meeting ended. This decision is in line with general market expectations.

The New Zealand Fed cut interest rates to 3.00% and sent a super dovish signal, the New Zealand dollar plummeted by 1.2%

While the New Zealand Fed released its latest forecast, it lowered the official cash rate from 3.25% to 3.00% as scheduled. The latest forecast of the New Zealand Fed shows that OCR will drop to 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and further drop to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026. xmltrust.compared with the May forecast, the interest rate level of 2.9% in the two quarters was significantly revised downward.

The New York dollar responded sharply to changes in the OCR outlook, with the New York dollar hitting 0.5819 at one point, a new low since April 14, down about 1.2%. The market was surprised by the dovish tone, with the New York dollar and swaps falling.

The New Zealand Fed acknowledged the stagnation of economic recovery in the second quarter, attributed to "global economic policy uncertainty, job declines, rising prices of some essentials and depreciation of real estate." The Fed said that the future economic outlook has both upward and downward risks, but still believes that there is room for further interest rate cuts.

At least one economist - Stephen Topless of the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) - has adjusted its forecast to include an additional rate cut expectation, keeping pace with the Fed's guidance.

The New Zealand Fed now expects consumer price inflation to peak at 3% in the third quarter (at 1%-3%Target range upper limit), quarterly gains of 0.9%, slightly higher than May's forecast of 0.8%. Inflation is expected to slow to 0.3% in the fourth quarter, still higher than the previous 0.2% forecast. Quarterly inflation expectations were slightly revised up during 2026, while inflation expectations were slightly revised downward for most of 2027.

The annual CPI growth rate is expected to be raised across the board: it will be revised up from 1.9% to 2.3% in the first quarter of 2026, from 1.9% to 2.2% in the second quarter, and from 2.1% to 2.2% in the third quarter.

The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.3% in the quarter (up from 5.2% forecast in May) and will remain above 5% until the fourth quarter of next year.

The current quarterly economic growth rate is expected to be fine-tuned from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the fourth quarter growth forecast is lowered from 0.9% to 0.8%. Growth is expected to drop from 0.8% to 0.7% in the first quarter next year, and down from 0.7% to 0.6% in the second and third quarters. Subsequent data on the speed of New Zealand's economic recovery will affect the future adjustment path of OCR.

New Zealand's economic recovery process stagnated in the second quarter of this year. The Fed warns that global and domestic economic growth faces headwinds. On the contrary, if the effect of interest rate cut policies is fully transmitted to the economic system, the recovery process may also be accelerated.

The Chairman of the New Zealand Federal Reserve delivered a speech after the interest rate resolution, further clarifying the monetary policy position and economic prospects judgment. He said that the past 250 basis points of easing will support economic growth, but the pace of rate cuts in the future will "depend entirely on the data." He also pointed out that the New Zealand economy "stagnated" in the second quarter of 2025 and economic activity was "far weaker than expected".

Technical Analysis

As the exchange rate continues to decline in the downward channel pattern, the bearish tendency remains stable. Short-term price momentum is weak, with the New York dollar currently below the nine-day index moving average (EMA) 0.5909. In addition, since the 14th-day relative strength index (RSI) has always hovered below the 50 mid-line, the bearish outlook has been strengthened.

In the downward trend, the New York dollar may receive near the lower track of the downward channel of 0.5770. If it effectively falls below the lower track of the channel, it may aggravate bearish sentiment and open up space for the lowest point since March 2020 of 0.5486.

In the upward trend, the primary resistance level of the currency pair is seen in the nine-day EMA (0.5905), followed by the converged resistance band formed by the 50-day EMA (0.5951) and the upper rail of the downward channel (0.5980). If this key resistance area can be broken, the short-term and medium-term price momentum may improve, pushing the exchange rate to a ten-month high of 0.6121 set on July 1.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The New Zealand Fed cut interest rates as scheduled but released a dovish signal beyond expectations, and the future interest rate cut cycle has already started". It was carefully xmltrust.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope to trade for yourHelpful! Thanks for the support!

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

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The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason