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Federal Reserve Director Waller shows up, the EU is forced to get angry?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Federal Reserve Director Waller shows off, is the EU forced to be in a hurry?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 21, during the Asian market on Monday, spot gold was trading around $3,346.77 per barrel. The weakening of the US dollar and the continued uncertainty of geopolitical and economic boosted demand for safe-haven gold. The Fed's independence dispute caused market concerns; U.S. crude oil was trading around $66.20 per barrel. Although the tariff news was mixed, the EU imposed the latest sanctions on Russia, causing supply concerns to support oil prices.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose in June, but the gains were considered moderate. Producer price inflation report released on Wednesday showed that price gains remained stable in June.
Powell said he expects inflation to rise this summer due to Trump's tariffs. His remarks delayed expectations of when the Fed could cut interest rates.
But despite the relatively stable overall employment growth and unemployment rate, the labor market still showed signs of weakness. "We are waiting for the tariffs to really land, not just as a negotiation strategy; but also waiting for the real performance of the labor market. Layers are lower than pre-pandemic levels, but hiring is bad. If a sudden wave of layoffs occurs, the unemployment rate will soon rise sharply." Fed governor Waller said last Friday that he tends to cut interest rates at his July meeting because he believes the impact of tariffs on inflation may be limited. Waller added that the underlying data “does not indicate that the private sector labor market is extremely healthy” and that the Fed should “before” respond to possible hiring slowdowns.
Powell faces Trump's criticism of the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates almost every day. Last Wednesday, there were reports that Trump planned to fire Powell, and the dollar fell, but the dollar rebounded after Trump denied the report. Powell's term expires next May.
Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby said he was "a little wary of" signs that tariffs pushed up xmltrust.commodity inflation in June CPI data, but still believed that the U.S. economy was in a good state and that the Fed's policy interest rate could drop "quite a slight" in the next 12 months.
Asian market
New Zealand's CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in the second quarter, slightly lower than expected 0.6%. The annual inflation rate rose slightly from 2.5% year-on-year to 2.7%, but is still lower than the year-on-year forecast of 2.8%. Overall inflation remains within the target range of 1-3%. The inflation rate of tradable xmltrust.commodities rose sharply from 0.3% year-on-year to 1.2%. Non-trade assets fell from 4.0% year-on-year to 3.7%, indicating that domestic pressure has eased.
Quarterly data showed that cultural services (+9.5%qoq), electricity (+4.9%qoq) and vegetables (+10.0%qoq) increased significantly, accounting for more than 70% of the total quarterly CPI growth. However, these gains were partially offset by a quarter-on-month decline in gasoline prices and a quarter-on-month decline in domestic accommodation services.
Japan core consumer inflation slowed for the first time in four months driven by a fall in energy prices. Excluding fresh foods, the core CPI dropped from 3.7% to 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations. While still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target (which has been at the level since April 2022), the slowdown suggests that the pressure on energy costs is weakening. Overall CPI also fell to 3.3% from 3.5% in May.
However, potential price pressures remain sticky. The core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, rose from 3.3% year-on-year to 3.4%, highlighting the continued inflation of services and food. The inflation rate of the service industry rose from 1.4% year-on-year to 1.5%. Food prices, excluding fresh food, soared 8.2% year-on-year, up from 7.7% in the same period last year. Rice inflation slowed slightly, but it was still at an all-time high, up 101.7% year-on-year.
European Market
The EU has passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia. This round of sanctions mainly hits the "core of the Russian war machine", including the banking industry, energy industry and military industry, as well as a new dynamic oil price cap mechanism.
U.S. market
U.S. consumer confidence improved in July, with the University of Michigan index rising from 60.7 to 61.8, the highest reading since February. The gains were wide, with the current situation index and the expected index rising to 66.8 and 58.6 respectively.
However, inflation expectations show more meaningful changes. Inflation expectations fell sharply from 5.0% to 4.4% in the xmltrust.coming year. Long-term expectations fell to 4.0% to 3.6% for the third consecutive month. Although these readings have been since FebruaryThe lowest reading, but is still well above the end of 2024 levels, reflects ongoing concerns about future price pressures.
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